Sunday, October 21, 2007

Soul forever under contract, 666 credit score rating

For so remarkably perverse is the nature of man that he despises whoever courts him and admires whoever will not bend before him. --Thucydides As nineteenth century America traded liberty for ambition, financial circumstances evolved as categories of personal identity. Imperialism trumped freedom; capitalism made every soul a business. Failure, a language of business, was applied to the soul. Failure was made yet never born prior to capitalism. Now, more outrun failure than chase success as a low ambition offends more than a low achievement. With the Civil War failure grew to mean insolvent. Failure became a sin promoted by the idea that men who failed lacked ability and ambition. Men were always at fault for their failures even though honest dealings and hard work could fail under capitalism. Failure went from an incident to an identity. A man became nothing more than his occupation. Striving for success became a compulsory virtue and even a sacred duty within religious cultures. Perpetual ambition became self respect and self esteem, where every life was to be lived on the stretch and an easy life could never be good enough. Men publish the successes of their efforts but shy from sharing failures, a practice of concealment that causes the ruins of many a man as every success is followed by eight failures with a paper trail of common failure hidden within libraries and public archives. The basis of modern American law, economy, and society is contract theory. Contract became the framework of achieved identity in its supreme place in legal thought. Free man could make deals to advance him and nobody fails who ought not to fail. A contract was a promise to succeed, to uphold your end of a bargain. Any soul freely accepted or rejected contracts, which completely ignores the basic facts of poverty and power. Legal release from debt violates two rules of capitalism, keeping a promise and taking responsibility when a soul’s actions harm others. An entrepreneur who failed in the early nineteenth century faced inadequate laws, vengeful creditors, and forced idleness in debtor’s prison. Bankruptcy laws voided a debtor’s legal obligations, not a soul’s moral ones. During rampant failure, a contract came to signify obligation but not a promise. A moral obligation was at odds with legal and economic change, yet worth preserving. To enshrine moral obligations was to sequester it unenforceable or ordered from the court.

Monday, October 8, 2007

Bankroll vs Edge and Odds

For a positive expectation bet, you need an edge.
Edge is the amount you expect to win.

For a positive expectation bet, you need the odds.
Odds of 2 to 1 converts to 1/(2+1) fraction

Wagers of positive expectation have size limitations.
Bankroll must be a consideration for making a wager.

Kelly Formula relates 'bet to bankroll' as 'edge/odds'.
Edge/odds formula ignores the effect this wager has.

Sunday, October 7, 2007

Arithmetic Mean vs. Geometric Mean

Arithmetic Mean = the sum of 'X' values divided by 'X' = Average.
Geometric Mean = the 'X' root of the product of 'X' values.

Geometric Mean < Arithmetic Mean, except when equal average values.
if Geometric Mean < Arithmetic Mean, then any risk is unfavorable

if an investor trades then zero sum game loses payments in trade
if a gambler makes a fair wager then risk makes wager unfavorable

if you wager or invest then you chose the highest Geometric Mean
if a Gemetric Mean = 0 then you can go to zero and will in time