Missiles and communications

In the year of my birth, 1957, the Defense Department formed the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) to coordinate science and technology projects with military applications. In 1962 the RAND Corporation was asked to propose a means whereby command and control could be maintained after a nuclear strike. Communications networks was either centralized through a hub or decentralized with a number of hubs where switchboards served as the hubs, which was highly vulnerable to a nuclear strike. Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles made wars between Great Powers irrational because they were not winnable but twice caused a deep fear, first during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 and then the Yom Kippur War of 1973. From 1976 to 1982, I was involved with Fleet Ballistic Missile submarines as a launcher operator supervisor onboard the USS Robert E Lee, SSBN 601 Polaris and the USS Daniel Webster, SSBN 626 Poseidon. From 1988 until 1998 I was an electrical engineer employed by TRW supporting the MX, Peacekeeper, and Minuteman ICBM weapon systems. A web of computers called ARPANET was established in 1968 with a total of four computers connected to it by phone lines, three in California and one at the University of Utah. APRA used RAND proposal of a distributed network with no central hubs but nodes that could be wiped out but other nodes still be able to deliver the signal. In 1971 Intel produced the first commercial microprocessor. In 1972 the first e-mail program was designed. In 1973 the TCP/IP protocol was designed. In 1974 the TCP/IP designers called it the Internet. In 1983 while I was an engineering student at the University of Utah, 563 computers were on the net when the University of Wisconsin developed the Domain Name System (DNS) that let any one computer find another. The geosynchronous satellites of the late 1960s made the world a global village. Overseas phone calls (OPC) numbered about a million in the 1950s and grew to 23 million by 1970. In 1980 there were 200 million OPC with other political and economic consequences, including a unified market trading a trillion dollars daily in major world currencies on average. An international communications cost collapse allowed the world’s financial market to become integrated to function full time as a seamless market. For the first time, he free market could dictate policy of a nation via the international consequences. By 1990, three hundred thousand computers were connected on the Internet. In 1992, the European nuclear research consortium, CERN, released a web browser, the World Wide Web (www) and the greatest decade of wealth creation in the history of the world began. Primvest provided $5M in venture capital to OnSat where I was employed as the Vice President of Business development, which allowed us to provide Internet connectivity to the Navajo Nations via geosynchronous satellites. I was also acting as a Director with RMWT Telecom. Costs plummeted with the overdevelopment of this time but it allowed growth where 6.3 billion overseas phone calls were being made by 2001. In March of 2000, the bubble begins to burst and by March of 2001 there was a recession in place. On September 11, 2001, there was an attack on the financial capital of the empire of wealth.

Two branches of mathematics

The Greeks had a simple number system, but it was different from the Egyptian system. Egyptians used pictures to represent numbers. Greeks used the letters of their alphabet. The Greeks got the idea for an alphabet from the Phoenicians, a seafaring people who lived around 1500 BC along the coast of Syria. The Greek number system used units of 5 and 10. The Greek alphabet had twenty-seven letters, so the first nine letters represented the digits 1 through 9; the second nine letters represented the tens, and the last nine letters represented the hundreds. The highest Greek number was 900. The Greeks did not have a zero, and since they rarely needed numbers higher than hundreds, the system worked fairly well. Even though the Greeks were logical about numbers, they were surprisingly superstitious too. Some numbers were evil, while other numbers were friendly or even sacred. Number 10 was the number of harmony. Number 8 was the symbol of death. Odd numbers were female, and even numbers were male. Two branches of mathematics resulted with separation of whole numbers and geometry. Eudoxus used geometry to define lengths, angles, areas, and volumes with irrational numbers as lengths or line segments. Converting all mathematics except the theory of whole numbers into geometry had consequences. From Euclid until 1600, geometry was the basis of all rigorous mathematics. Mathematics begins intuitive or empirical and remained so until the 4th century BC. Babylonians used numbers without any understanding of decimal approximations. BC Pythagoras of the 5th century had linked whole numbers and ratios of whole numbers as the way to study nature and insisted the whole numbers were the measure of all things until Hippasus discovered a irrational number or incommensurable ratio. Pythagoreans and the classical Greeks rejected irrational numbers. Classical Greeks believed in the theory of whole numbers with a logical foundation. Deductive mathematic attempts led Euclid to define all his concepts to provide a logical treatment of the whole numbers. Geometric representation of numbers and of operations with numbers was not practical. The deductive orderly proof of the geometry of Euclid, Apollonius, and Archimedes was merged with the indeterminate class of problems in the works of Diophantus. Classical Greek civilization combined with Egyptian and Babylonian in the period of Alexandrian Greek civilization. Various types of undefined numbers continued to be used to provide empirically correct solutions. Heron translated much of the Greek geometrical algebra into arithmetical and algebraic processes and provided a formula for the area of a triangle. Hipparchus and Ptolemy created quantitative astronomy with the creation of trigonometry. Arithmetic and algebra emerged without logical structure since it could be used provide empirical results. Diophantus introduced symbolism in algebraic operations that was entirely arithmetical with no appeal to geometry. He introduced indeterminate equations as a branch of algebra but considered equations producing irrational negative or imaginary roots as unsolvable. Heron accepted irrational quantities; Archimedes put bounds around irrational numbers. Hindus and Arab advanced arithmetic and algebra empirically. They reasoned by analogy and introduced rules for manipulating irrational numbers without providing any logical foundation favored in classical Greek mathematics. The Hindus introduced separate symbols for the numbers 1 to 9, converted from positional notation in base 60 to base 10, recognized 0 as a number, and used negative numbers. Europeans of the Renaissance acquired its knowledge of mathematics via the Arabs and Greek manuscripts. They noticed a dilemma presented by the two disparate states of arithmetic and geometry. They realized the utility of arithmetic and algebra of ancient times lacked a logical foundation. Europeans of the 16th and 17th century considered the negative numbers in Arab texts as absurd. Girard and Harriot used the minus sign to describe negative numbers. A negative number is an independent concept, not the operation of subtraction. Using separate symbols would have been better.

Logarithms, complex numbers, mathematical induction, and the binomial theorem were added to the body of algebra without proofs. Algebra became a study of general types of forms and equations when Vieta introduced literal coefficients separating arithmetic and algebra, types from numbers. By the mid-18th century, algebra included many branches.

Soul forever under contract, 666 credit score rating

For so remarkably perverse is the nature of man that he despises whoever courts him and admires whoever will not bend before him. --Thucydides As nineteenth century America traded liberty for ambition, financial circumstances evolved as categories of personal identity. Imperialism trumped freedom; capitalism made every soul a business. Failure, a language of business, was applied to the soul. Failure was made yet never born prior to capitalism. Now, more outrun failure than chase success as a low ambition offends more than a low achievement. With the Civil War failure grew to mean insolvent. Failure became a sin promoted by the idea that men who failed lacked ability and ambition. Men were always at fault for their failures even though honest dealings and hard work could fail under capitalism. Failure went from an incident to an identity. A man became nothing more than his occupation. Striving for success became a compulsory virtue and even a sacred duty within religious cultures. Perpetual ambition became self respect and self esteem, where every life was to be lived on the stretch and an easy life could never be good enough. Men publish the successes of their efforts but shy from sharing failures, a practice of concealment that causes the ruins of many a man as every success is followed by eight failures with a paper trail of common failure hidden within libraries and public archives. The basis of modern American law, economy, and society is contract theory. Contract became the framework of achieved identity in its supreme place in legal thought. Free man could make deals to advance him and nobody fails who ought not to fail. A contract was a promise to succeed, to uphold your end of a bargain. Any soul freely accepted or rejected contracts, which completely ignores the basic facts of poverty and power. Legal release from debt violates two rules of capitalism, keeping a promise and taking responsibility when a soul’s actions harm others. An entrepreneur who failed in the early nineteenth century faced inadequate laws, vengeful creditors, and forced idleness in debtor’s prison. Bankruptcy laws voided a debtor’s legal obligations, not a soul’s moral ones. During rampant failure, a contract came to signify obligation but not a promise. A moral obligation was at odds with legal and economic change, yet worth preserving. To enshrine moral obligations was to sequester it unenforceable or ordered from the court.

Bankroll vs Edge and Odds

For a positive expectation bet, you need an edge.
Edge is the amount you expect to win.

For a positive expectation bet, you need the odds.
Odds of 2 to 1 converts to 1/(2+1) fraction

Wagers of positive expectation have size limitations.
Bankroll must be a consideration for making a wager.

Kelly Formula relates 'bet to bankroll' as 'edge/odds'.
Edge/odds formula ignores the effect this wager has.

Arithmetic Mean vs. Geometric Mean

Arithmetic Mean = the sum of 'X' values divided by 'X' = Average.
Geometric Mean = the 'X' root of the product of 'X' values.

Geometric Mean < Arithmetic Mean, except when equal average values.
if Geometric Mean < Arithmetic Mean, then any risk is unfavorable

if an investor trades then zero sum game loses payments in trade
if a gambler makes a fair wager then risk makes wager unfavorable

if you wager or invest then you chose the highest Geometric Mean
if a Gemetric Mean = 0 then you can go to zero and will in time

Arithmetic Emprical not Truth

The problem in arithmetic is people use applications to physical phenomena without the necessary experience to understand if it even applies. Examples of arithmetic applications can be absurd. I like Grey Goose Vodka and if a quart of alcohol is mixed with a quart of water it will yield ~1.8 quarts of vodka, which is true of most mixtures of alcoholic liquids. I play basketball and if one night I hit 2 out of 3 shots and the next night I make 3 out of 4 shots and you compute my average over both games by adding the two fractions in the usual method of adding fractions, which is find the common denominator:
2/3 +3/4 = 8/12+9/12=17/12
So, I made 17 shots in 12 tries? The method of adding fractions does not give my shooting average over separate games.

A new way of adding fractions is add the numerators and add the denominators:
2/3 +3/4=5/7
Experience tells us this arithmetic method is correct.

Under normal rules 2/3=4/6 but not under this new method of adding fractions:
4/6+3/4=7/10, and 7/10 does NOT equal 5/7.

In normal arithmetic, fractions behave as integers. So consider the numerators 2 and 4. The numbers can be fractions: 2/1 and 4/1.

Now use our new arithmetic:
2/1+4/1=6/2 rather than the 6/1 obtained under normal rules.

This has a major significance since it concludes that there is no truth in mathematics but simply a tool developed by man. Only experience can show where ordinary arithmetic applies to any given physical phenomena. The theorems of mathematics are not truths but man's tool to model aspects about the physical world. As far as the study of the physical world is concerned, mathematics merely offers theories. Mathematics is based on man's intuition whereas axioms of logic or truth is an art where man is allowed to paint his better wrong answer with confidence.

Fractions and Odds

To convert odds to fractions: a to b is b/ (a+b)
To convert fractions to odds: a/b is (b-a) to a

Odds are a ratio of non occurrences to occurrences (losses to wins).
Ratios reduce to lower terms [i.e. (9 to 6) = (3 to 2)].

Think of things in terms of fractions or percentages not odds.
3 to 1 shot: 1/ (1+3) = 1/4: 0.25 = 25%
hence 3 to 2 shot = 40%
4 to 1 shot: 1/ (1+4) = 1/5: 0.20 = 20%

Odds need to be converted to fractions to do any arithmetic. Change odds to percentages, add the percentages, and revert that to odds. (i.e. to parlay 3 to shot and 4 to 1 shot):
3 to 2: 2/5
4 to 1: 1/5
1/5 x 2/5 = 2/25, which reverts to 23 to 2 shot.

Percentage advantage is not the same as percentage disadvantage. If you know either then you can tell if your expectation is positive or negative. Your average profit per game is your expectations. With 9 to 1 odds, the house has a 1% advantage, for example each $110 bet makes them $1, yet the player disadvantage is to lose $1 for each $11 bet, which is 9.1% when he bets $1 per roll for eleven rolls where he wins once ($9) and they win $10.