Harristottle

there really is an eGod

2011-09-01T10:25:00.000-07:00

Kilroy was here

Kilroy/Chad is a band-pass filter eGod

In the beginning Kilroy and Chad the band-pass filter merged in unity to create the electronic God (eGod). A belief of electrical excitement visualized by man's spirit caused the spread of graffito Chad and slogan 'Kilroy was here' to become one. And electronics was without chip form, and void of microprocessor; and darkness was upon the face of the cities. And eGod said, Let there be light: and there was light. And lights of electrical current moved upon the face of the cities. And eGod saw the light, that it was good: and eGod divided electrical components from microelectronics. And eGod called the device light bulbs, and the electrical power brought light to the night. And the evening and the morning were the first day.

And eGod said, Let there be a filament in the middle of the light, and let it divide the light from the night. And eGod made the filament, and it was so. And eGod called the filament inside the component tungsten. And the evening and the morning were the second day.

And eGod said let the light under the bulb be gathered in one place, and let the dark surround the light: and it was so. And eGod called the light making device a light bulb; and the gathering together of the light bulbs into an area called cities: and eGod saw that it was good. And eGod said, let the electrical current bring forth electronics, the electronics yielding components, and the components yielding microelectronics after its kind, whose electronic properties in the bulb, carry the light: and it was so. And the electrical current brought forth electronic components, and components yielding devices of the electronics kind, and the electronic components, whose lights was in itself, after electrical properties: and eGod saw that it was good. And the evening and the morning were the third day.

And eGod said, Let there be light in the filament of the bulb to divide the light from the night; and let them be for neon signs, and for seasons, and for days, and years: And let them be for lights in the filament of the electrical properties to give light bulbs upon the night: and it was so. And eGod made two great bulbs; the 100W light bulb to rule the day, and the lesser light bulb to rule the night: he made the electrical appliances also. And eGod set current in the filament of the bulb to give light upon the cities, And to rule over the day and over the night, and to divide the light from the darkness: and eGod saw that it was good. And the evening and the morning were the fourth day.

And eGod said, let the magical power bring forth abundantly moving devices for the creatures that hath life, and devices that may fly above the vehicles using the same current as the filament of the light bulb. And eGod created great devices and every living creature moved using vehicles. The electronic components brought forth devices abundantly, after their kind, and every device after its kind: and eGod saw that it was good. And eGod blessed them, saying, be commercial, and multiply, and fill the cities and the towns, and let devices multiply and become smaller. And the evening and the morning were the fifth day.

And eGod said, let the magical power bring forth the living creature after his kind, congenial girls, and creeping things, and beasts of the night after his kind: and it was so. And eGod made the beast of the night after his kind and congenial girls after their kind and every kind of crepe upon the earth after his kind: and eGod saw that it was good. And eGod said; Let us make man in the band-pass filter image, after our likeness: and let these devices have dominion over the electrical wires, and over the electronic devices, and over the micro electronics, and over all the light that bring every creepy thing that creped upon the earth. So eGod created in his own image Smoe, Clem, Snoops, Overby, and Sapo. And eGod blessed them, and eGod said unto them, spread of band-pass filter Chad and slogan 'Kilroy was here': to have dominion over the electrical components, and over the electronic components, and over the microelectronics. And eGod said, Behold, I have given you every electric device, which is upon the face of all the earth, and every city. And to every beast of the light, and to everything that creped upon the light, wherein there is life, I have given every electrical device: and it was so. And eGod saw everything that he had made, and, behold, it was very good. And the evening and the morning were the sixth day.

Kilroy said, I am eGod and if you believe in me then you will scribble the band-pass filter and "Kilroy was here" all over the world in schools, trains, and other similar public areas. Smoe, Clem, Snoops, Overby, and Sapo were put to sleep and a jeep flywheel was molded to become their mates to populate the world.

eGod Kilroy had a falling out with Foo the devil. "Foo" was thought to be a gremlin. eGod's name was used in vain by devices for anything they could not recall by name. Smoe, Clem, Snoops, Overby, and Sapo descendants were confused by Foo. "Foo was here" graffiti began to be chalked on the side of railway carriages. Evil "Foo was here" appeared everywhere and made his presence felt." "Foo was here" was said to pre-date "Kilroy was here" by about twenty years. "Foo was here" was used as the equivalent of "Kilroy was here." eGod Kilroy said there will be but one to be worshiped and went nuts.

The Gambler

2011-05-16T11:18:00.001-07:00

My Lady Luck you can’t hide
Expect to stand by my side
An explanation ever so polite
Expect to lose as I win in spite
High rollers will come to play
Expect your money to go away
Where the games are for keep
Expect to read them and weep
When the big game is begun
Expect to see the Vegas Gun

On God

2011-05-16T10:59:00.000-07:00

Man's first gods were to be feared as terrifying and unpredictable forces of nature in a world of darkness. Later, ancient Egyptians invented gods who lived lives like the people who worshipped them. Gods were not restrained by knowledge to live in an unreachable heaven. Sure they lived invisibly, but in the mortal world. Man has always sought immortality and has always invented gods to worship for the keys to Afterlife.

Prometheus was the wisest Titan. His name means "forethought" and he was able to foretell the future. He was the son of Iapetus. When Zeus revolted against Cronus Prometheus deserted the other Titans and fought on Zeus side.

By some accounts he and his brother Epimetheus were delagated by Zeus to create man. In all accounts, Prometheus is known as the protector and benifactor of man. He gave mankind a number of gifts including fire. He also tricked Zeus into allowing man to keep the best part of the animals scarificed to the gods and to give the gods the worst parts.

For this Zeus punished Prometheus by having him chained to a rock with an eagle tearing at his liver. He was to be left there for all eternity or until he agreed to disclose to Zeus which of Zeus children would try to replace him. He was eventually rescued by Hercules without giving in to Zeus.

Science vs Religion

Science objectively presents its evidence as theories, which must be falsifiable. If theories no longer conform to the evidence, they are modified, rejected, or replaced. Science attempts to falsify its assumptions and will reject implausible explanations. Scientific knowledge approach is to understand the natural world. Information theory is a branch of applied mathematics and electrical engineering involving the quantification of information based on Claude Shannon’s theory.

Entropy is a measure of information which quantifies the uncertainty. The theory can be used to provide evidence that everything is random. Now regress to Biblically based "creation science" that was outlawed from public schools as an alternative or in addition to mainstream evolutionary theory of the biological sciences in 1987. The transformation over a period of time from one species into another is established science. Theory of evolution is the explanation for how that transformation occurs. Fossil evidence sufficiently demonstrates evolution.

Compelling evidence results from DNA testing of species. Evolution is a scientific theory with the ability to accurately explain facts observed in the world just as sun-centered solar system of Copernicus and Galileo is a theory. Evolution is the central theory of biology that explains the presence of millions of fossils and other evidence about the origin of life forms. There is not a tenured biologist in biology departments of top-rated university who does not understand that life on earth has developed through the process of evolution, starting with single-cell organisms. It took over 200 years before dogma finally came to a cognitive disconnect and accepted scientific evidence that the earth revolved around the sun.

Fundamentalists have stolen from science and delayed ignorance by pretending that science suggests intelligent design to reject an otherwise uncomfortable feeling of holding conflicting ideas simultaneously. The delusional will come to accept the theory of evolution but it may not by as fast as the 200 year resolution to reject the geocentric theory for the heliocentric system but it will happen. Until then, religious creation stories and "intelligent design" will remain as philosophy, religion, or history courses. How long will it be before Information Theory (IT) evidence is accepted? I suggest the delusional are cock-sure enough to destroy the social contract and return us to the dark ages as to accept IT.
Power Worship

Power is freely worshipped with unlimited respect. Placating a jealous god has been man’s history of cruelty and torture where a trembling believer pathetically endures human sacrifice giving his most precious freely in hopes to appease a lust for blood. Man’s respect for power allows him to prostrate himself to worship his god.

The past has such magical power. The beauty of its motionless and silent pictures is like the enchanted purity of late autumn, when the leaves, though one breath would make them fall, still glow against the sky in golden glory. The past does not change or strive; like Duncan, after life’s fitful fever it sleep well; what was eager and grasping, what was petty and transitory, has faded away, the things that were beautiful and eternal shine out of it like stars in the night. Its beauty, to a soul not worthy of it, is unendurable; but to a soul which has conquered fate it is the key of religion.

It is more difficult to deal with the conceit of delusional men. Passions and self- esteem are sources of error. Fear creates belief in something comforting and faith in heaven for ourselves and hell for our enemies is a delusional fear, a lie man will kill for...

Region is Fear Based

Man who wont admit his own fears nor guard himself by a difficult effort of will against myth-making power, he can't hope to think truly about matters of great importance, especially where religious beliefs are concerned. Fear is the source of superstition and man's chief source of cruelty. To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom and allows for the pursuit of man. Science has lessened the belief in magic but delusional faith remains cruel and deadly but the future life may be a more effective way of combating fear than to dread witches. Collective fear stimulates herd instinct and tends to produce ferocity towards those who are not regarded as members of the herd. Fear generates impulses of cruelty to promote superstitious beliefs that justify cruelty. Great fear removes humanity. Man with the courage to die gallantly doesn't have the courage to think he is asked to die for an unworthy cause. Obloquy is more painful than death which is the reason so few men have the courage to dissent from the prevailing opinion in times of collective excitement.

Early European Christians Killed with Indians

Norse Greenland history up to 1360 revels these medieval Europeans desperately tried to hold on to their European Christian roots in Greenland before dying around the 15th century. However, these Christians added history to their Bible lessons when they moved to America as the Leni Lenape. The Leni Lenape were still Christians upon the arrival of the Europeans. American history connects this Greenland history from 1000 to reports in English history during the 2nd voyage to America in 1585. In 1619 Lord De La Warr III ravaged Leni Lenape villages in Chesapeake Bay during a campaign of total destruction. History books in schools fail to describe the brutal campaign, where 400 of his men dressed in medieval armor carrying firearms, walked through the native villages killing and burning everything. Surviving Leni Lenape are called the Delaware Indians. With that said, the remaining lifetime of economically handicapped and aging people will also be reshaped by resource scarcities as the physical limits of the earth encounters an economy operating as if no physical limits exist. It only functions when it's growing, creating jobs and servicing debts. Without growth, jobs, opportunities, and the ability to repay debts will disappear. Pain and confusion from challenges in the economy, energy resources, and the environmental predicaments are underway. A dangerous convergence of unsustainable trends in the economy, energy, and environment is occurring as the elite continue to isolate themselves from society. Challenging decades are to come.

Religion is Myth

Religions were born of the myths of primitive peoples of various cultures. As ridiculous as they are, such myths can be perpetuated to the eventual death of the species. A true believer is careful of what they say, what they think, with whom they speak, and of information.

Never thinking about existence as it presents itself, never examining their own beliefs to any depth, avoiding information and limited to ideas and knowledge that fits a religious tautology, a circularly reasoned belief system wherein all contradictions, absurdities and basic premises are repressed or are maintained as sacrosanct, carefully shielded from examination or questioning, establishing environments that do not threaten their beliefs though avoidance, restricting their own interactions to others of similar bent, retreating from any source of threatening information. A believer will hear only what they want to hear and steer clear of dangerous thoughts or questions. Believers remove any corrections from learning and growth. A true believer can rarely be helped since they will not face reality reflecting information that would dissolve the delusions. Positive effects attributed to religion are not the product of religion but products of nice people who have areas of very valid insight and knowledge who have a propensity for serving others tend to gravitate toward religion. Empathy for others and a willingness to help is a common human trait or propensity dependent upon perception, not religion. Religion, like political organizations, is quick to take the credit. Religion uses the natural human impulses as a means to control and manipulate. Many of the positive effects attributed to religion appear to be motivated by the drive to proselytize, to fill coffers, to gain power and to increase acceptability within the society. Oft times a beneficial activity, pursued by church, is simply an acceptable direction in which to invest monies while generating membership. The solace offered is delusional and the unity generated pits the religionist against reality, against the solution to problems and against other groups. Ultimately, the religion stands as a barrier to social function and meaningful progress. The leadership knows that there is no objective support for religion; that it must be maintained only through blind faith. The leadership knows that the flock must not seriously question, that they must be maintained in a condition of delusion and ignorance or they will lose the faith.

They know what must be done to maximize the extraction of monies and services from the believer. They understand the use of emotionality, guilt and fear. The leadership understands the vulnerable aspects of the religion and that they must avoid the hard questions. There are a few ministers of the more isolated churches who maintain their own faith by maintaining their own ignorance, but these are probably a minority.

Based on my own conversations with ministers, there appears to be no small number who justifies the religion in that it fulfills emotional needs of a congregation completely oblivious to any damage wrought by delusion. Religion generates irrationality, insures devastating ignorance and locks the group into a monolithic posture highly resistant to rational change and pitted against other groups. As human societies proliferated and increased in complexity, religion became more organized and a power unto itself. People could be made to labor on behalf of religion, making it a means of accumulating great wealth and power. Its'
influence grew to reach beyond tribal boundaries. Its priests grew to rival the power of kings. Religion generated, and necessitated institutionalizations of untruth. It was, and is, the greatest teacher of falsehood and distorted reasoning in human societies. Christianity represented a marked departure from Judaism in that it was a religion for the hopeless. It taught denial of the self in exchange for reward in the afterlife. Virtually all of its tenets have the effect of reducing the self-determination of the individual, enhancing the possibility of manipulation and making the individual more vulnerable to exploitation.

The Christ myth was built upon the 'martyrdom' of this person, long after the event. Here, amidst the conflict and turmoil of a degenerating empire, a new religion was fabricated almost overnight. In contrast to the religions out of which it was fashioned, the fabric of Christianity was in place within a few years, largely at the hands of one man, the biblical Paul. Altruistic and promising a forgiveness of sins and eternal life in paradise after death, the new departure from traditional Judaism spread quickly among oppressed peoples, thriving among the poor and the enslaved, spreading false hope among the hopeless, as it does today. Christianity thrives best in the midst of privation, ignorance and chaos. The essence of Christianity can be found by studying the Sermon on the Mount, Matthew, Chapters 5, 6and 7, in which "Jesus" talks to the multitude. Every tenet of that address is directed toward weakening the individual and making him/her more open to manipulation and exploitation. It was a message designed to enslave and exploit the ignorant and helpless, involving tenets which would cause the believer to willingly cooperate in the process of his or her own exploitation.

Christianity spread throughout the Roman Empire. It ushered in the Dark Ages with its inquisitions and the destruction of non-believers. It caused to be destroyed the bulk of real knowledge that Western man had accumulated. Anything which did not overtly espouse Christianity was put to the torch. This loss of knowledge seriously retarded the progress of western man for a thousand years. Only through the dissemination of knowledge, primarily mathematics, from the Islamic countries, and which was reintroduced by such means as the Crusades and the conquest of Spain by the Moors, did European man slowly rebuild the foundations of knowledge, finding some relief from the morass of ancient superstition.

Today, we watch a resurgence of Christianity and other fundamentalist religions, with their focus on otherworldliness. As it spreads among our populations, humanity's ability to function diminishes accordingly. In the United States, a place of people who began as aggressive achievers, thirsty for knowledge and able to solve problems, we are gaining a populace that flees from knowledge. We watch the gathering darkness of ignorance and superstition, of what could be the coming of a second dark age, should these forces gain the power to govern. For any democracy, nothing presents more of a clear and present danger than cumulative abysmal ignorance of the true believers. Even now, religion is effective in insuring that a large part of the population of this nation remains ignorant of the real nature of existence and is predominately responsible for our drift into social chaos. Religion and Authoritarian Governing precludes an effective public educational system, preventing vital information and connectively from reaching the text books. It prevents the teaching of accurate and critical reasoning processes, necessary for the rejection of the false and the absurd. It allows or mandates procedures which insure the ineffectiveness of teaching practices, exhausting the system with irrational and unattainable objectives. Such beliefs appear to be the primary force which holds these groups in an iron fist of ignorance and dysfunctionality, unable to progress, with high percentages within the group, having to be carried by the productive elements of the society. Our society will make its collective decision as to which way it will go, whether to regain its respect for knowledge and regain the ability to progress, or to continue its degenerative trek into savage brutality with the destruction of technology and the amenities of living that have been achieved. We will go one way or the other. There is no middle ground.

The pressures of a burgeoning Earth population preclude any condition of stasis.

Religious Work Ethic

There is no economic justice and it is understood that there is no scheme of equality which overcomes the population difficulty. Most of the total produce benefits a small minority of the population. Much produce is not even wanted. A large amount of the working population is idle while others are overworked. When his happens, we generally go to war. Therefore, it is harmful for man to believe in a virtuousness of work. Happiness and prosperity of man lies in an organized diminution of work. Civilization from the beginning toiled for a small surplus above bare necessaries. This small surplus has been appropriated by the warriors and priests. No one would have volunteered to part with the slender surplus in which warriors and priests subsisted. Peasants would have either produced less or consumed more. A sheer force must have originally compelled them to produce and part with it, especially in times of famine when there was no surplus and the warriors and priests still secured as much as at other times, resulting in many of the workers dying of hunger. Someone found way to induce the multitudes to accept an ethic according to which it was their duty to work hard, although part of their work went to support their idleness. This conception of duty has been a means used by the holders of power to induce others to live for the interests of their masters rather than for their own. The desirability of work is derived from this system but it has not been adaptable to the changes in the modern world. Modern techniques allow for leisure which is possible to distribute throughout the community. The rich should not find it shocking that the poor have leisure. It should be shocking that a man consumes more than he produces. If the ordinary wage-earner worked four hours a day, then there would be enough for everyone. It is better than the expectation of overwork or starve. Only foolish asceticism makes man suffer this deprivation. No dying man ever says he only wished he had worked harder. Work is necessary means to a livelihood but it’s from their leisure that they derive happiness.Harm is being caused by belief in the virtuousness of work, and that the road to happiness and prosperity lies in an organized diminution of work. Work is unpleasant and under compensated.

In the Beginning

In the beginning, a Big Bang created hydrogen, helium, and lithium. Eventually supernova explosions led to life on Earth after the necessary heat and pressure was available to produce the heavier elements. Compressed atoms created the complex elements such as iron, gold, silver, uranium, and platinum which spewed into space and mixed with new stars producing clouds of nebulosity. The new stars from these nebulas, with their attendant planets, moons, and comets contained the heavier elements and any creatures that walked the surfaces of those planets or moons. The calcium in bones and the iron in blood came from other stellar fusion processes.

What would Jesus Do

"What would Jesus do?" Then he would say “send me 10% of your money and worship my jealous, intolerant ignorance and you can live with me forever, else, I’m going to smite you to hell to burn for eternity for my viewing pleasure”.

snopes.com: Bottle Bombs

2010-07-28T18:54:00.000-07:00

snopes.com: Bottle Bombs

Emotions and Memories

2010-06-28T18:16:00.001-07:00

Sharing an experience, a memory two can own
Similar thoughts trump memories, made alone
Moments of shared memories fill a secret need
And sharing emotions seems breathless indeed
Fond times are when hours move at minute's paces
As memories candlelight strange on shadowy faces

Language, arbitrary signs, science and religion

2009-09-01T10:22:00.000-07:00

I cannot spell a lot of words because English spelling is treacherous. Which of these words are not spelled correctly: Colonel, ache, hark, harken, mispelled, buffay, ryme, cloathes, whair, profesor, bizzy, forteen, fourty, supercede, conceed, procede, idiosyncracy, concensus, dette, doute, accomodate, impressario, irresistable, rhythym, opthalmologist, diptheria, anamoly, afficianado, grafitti, preceeding, wun, and wunce? Only 84% of English spellings conform to general pattern while 400 irregular spellings occur! It was possible to tell where in Britain a letter or manuscript had been written from observing the spellings until the printing press was adopted. English spelling were being standardized as the language was having a phonetic seizure that results in a body of spellings that reflect the pronunciations of people living 400 years ago. Noah Webster drove standard spellings and lobbied Congress to make it a legal requirement, making America the first country in history to have deviant spelling a punishable offense. All but the first three of the words listed in the second sentence are misspelled.

I cannot recall peoples name because the proper name is arbitrary. The name Fred does not resemble a human. As far as that goes, the word horse has no resemblance to a horse. This arbitrary significance of words defines the difference between human language and animal communication. Signs are arbitrary in contrast with animal signals. Signals relate to its object whereas signs define an object with language. Signs subsist in language as a representation of the world. The qualitative difference between human language and animal systems is signs indexed and learned through association with their object. Jewish and Hebrew concept of a name is something that conveys the nature and essence of the thing named. It represents a history and reputation of the being named; not merely an arbitrary designation. Possessing speech is essential to our concept of intelligence and being human.

Language reliably creates new combination of ideas to arise in our minds. Words shape events in our brain. The Origin of Species was submitted by Charles Darwin in 1859 after he collected twenty years of data on the theory of natural selection. He published The Descent of Man to address the topic of human evolution ten years later yet the origin of language remains speculative and controversial. The Linguistic Society of Paris has not allowed papers on a theory of the origin and evolution of language at scholarly meetings since 1866.

Classical languages, Sanskrit, Greek, Latin, Gothic, Celtic, and Persian, are intricate and complicated in grammatical form as contemporary languages. Every culture has a highly sophisticated languages capable of naming or discussing whatever occurs around them. The origin of language remains speculative as the chronology of evolution leaves few traces on the human skeleton. Everything is based on conjecture. The theory based on the same source origin is based on a hypothetical mother tongue. Latin evolved into the Romance languages of French, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, and Romanian. Romance language is simpler not more elegant. Forty-three words make up fifty percent of the most common words and 9 accounts for 25% of the words in most written samples. They are: and, be, have, it, of, the, to, will, you.

English is the global language of discourse in business, science, education, and politics with 95% of the world’s airlines using the international language. A list of English terms that are universal include; airport, passport, hotel, telephone, bar, soda, cigarette, sport, golf, tennis, stop, okay, weekend, jeans, know-how, sex appeal, and no problem. English is flexible with a richness of vocabulary not found in other languages. The available synonyms give English vocabulary distinctions unavailable in other tongues. The French cannot distinguish a house from a home or a mind and brain; Spanish between Chairman and President; Italians have no wishful thinking, Russians nothing for efficiency, have fun or take care. Japanese sentences usually have no subject. French and German languages do distinguish knowledge that results from recognition and knowledge that results from understanding.

English versatility leads to perplexing rules of grammar. No reliable measurement of quality or efficiency exists in any language. A notable characteristic of English is its deceptive complexity. English also adopted words as needed. The pronouns they, them and there are Scandinavian. Anglo-Saxon names were adopted for humble trades like a baker, miller or shoemaker. French names were adapted for skilled trades like mason, painter or tailor. English names were given to field animals like sheep, cow and ox. French names to animals cooked and on the table like beef, mutton, veal, and bacon. The hundred most common words in English are Anglo-Saxon.

Every reconstructed language is sophisticated and complete from an evolutionary point of view. The emergence of syntactically mature language reflects evolutionary developments of the brain all at once in language. Brain knowledge may supersede religion for cosmology or natural science; humans remain capable of unscientific thought and scientific thought.

Religion is not useful for thinking about the gravitational interaction of celestial bodies since the Renaissance but remains the basis of metaphysical philosophy to understand processes of language and thought. Scientific thinking occurs under conditions of metaphysical peace and faith maintains the preconditions of this peace in the ethical reality of human social life. Religion remains indispensable for thinking about the ethical interaction of human beings. The first hypothesis of human origin is in the Biblical creation presentation and reflects an understanding science has not mastered.

My Poems

2009-04-21T11:26:00.000-07:00

Emotional Reaction at Electromagnetic Velocity

She was sparking with electrical excitement
Inducing my own strong magnetic incitement
Transcending every force with a shared curiosity
Moving with phenomenal electromagnetic velocity

Emitting innocence in her spectrum of heated attractions
Oscillating wildness transverse her transmitted infractions
Energetic waves propagating her visible satisfactions
Frequency vibrations visibly reflecting her reactions

Words unable to explain this wave of insanity
Theory can merely model our coupled vanity
Exotic encounters shifted and twisted awry
Moving perpendicular before an explosive cry

She was propagating sincerity deep from her eyes
With a waving intensity reflecting my new highs
Emitting light in a short period of shocking surprise
With scorching pain oscillating from her goodbyes

A Paradox of Positive Expectations

An edge is a risk with a positive expectation
And gambles vary with a standard deviation
When attempting sure betting given the edge
A betting decision carries risk of loss pledge

Risk adverse bets accompany sure gain
Edge bet chances a loss that causes pain
Risk seeking bets favor against sure loss
As preference to chance trumps real costs

Investment comes with risks immeasurable
Gambling is uncertainty easily measurable
Risk seeking deals offer improbable gains
An unlikely loss causes risk adverse pains

Risk of positive expectation can carry hostility
At revelations from impossibility to possibility
Or crossing at the possibility to certainty scale
Positive expectations yet risk probabilities fail

Randomness of Life Create Delusions of Morality and Ethics

Random encouragement attains moral maturity in life's game
Yet delusion suggests morality creates praise and blame
Random influences creates a delusion with every virtue or vice
Yet hail virtuous and fault vicious to justify culturally nice

Random acts influence culture growth of morality to unfold
Yet respective virtue and vice is environmentally controlled
Random living creates a outlook of cultured ethical relevance
Yet ethics of emotional morality ends with delusional irrelevance

Randomness demands control to develop a cultural environment
Yet ethics praises virtue or blames vicious cultural development
Randomness of influencing delusions reflect virtue or vice
Yet relations begin of chance with a self-interest price

Moonlight Gaze

Your eyes wide and soul tight
with a wolf in the moonlight
features flowing of a flower
air of peace within your power

Lying in snow weighed by a ton
under a tree by a frozen pond
your eyes wide and body tight
with a wolf under the moonlight

Features flowing in full power
air of peace within your flower
laying in the hay sharing in fun
with that wolf licking your bun

-1st revision

A wolf howling in the moonlight
Your eyes wide and soul tight
Features gleaming like a flower
Air of peace within your power
Cozy viewing the stars beyond
Under a tree by a frozen pond

Friends In Flight with Strangers

a short flight of shared conversation is had
a memory's pleasure can be so happy yet sad
a shared experience is memory each will own
a memory better than again flying home alone
a shared moment of memory like a secret need
a surface emotion stretches breathless indeed
a memory candlelight strange on shadowy faces
a fond time recalled in minutes at hour paces
a shared time together jetting away further
a place in flight linked one seat to another

Tantalizing Shadows

Tantalizing shadows harmonize in the sunset lighting
Sparkling droplets gleaming from asunder sighting
Glowing faces formed in the shadows of a sunset sky
Heartthrob enchanting clouds descend twilight high

Tantalizing shadows driven from the heat of passion
Birds in song with animals crying in harmonic fashion
All conspicuous but nothing spoken as shadows close
Embracing gently touching in passion felt in the toes

Tantalizing shadows dancing in emotional eyes
Intimate emotions of soul daunting shadows arise
Embracing passion from this seductive history
Dusk engulfs passion diminishing with mystery

Tantalizing shadows of unity cumulate nimble
Shadows sway the earth beneath to even tremble
Erupting volcanoes glowing red in a darkened sky
Eclipses surrounding nature kindle mountain high

Tantalizing shadows radiantly glow in the night
Nature soars to a twilight dance of a firefly light
Alluring eclipses neighboring together into one
Gentle passion overwhelms emotion on the run

How

How careful was my path in nature which led me to play
How careful was my wink when my eyes saw best to stay
How can my thoughts remain unlike the desires of life
How can nature brand me when Cupid suggests strife
How can woman's face of nature not stir a man's fire
How can beautiful creatures not increase this desire
How against nature can desire be absent in spring
How against my spirit is the meaning of that ring
How against my mind can I restrain a lustful heart
How against my creature lust can desire just part
How expensive is my desire that leads into shame
How expensive to my spirit can haste be to blame
How expensive to my comfort what riddles despair
How expensive to justify a call of life so unfair
How unlike desire missing has my absence been
How unlike nature can my natural conscience sin
How unlike love does my desire lead toward hate
How unlike petty nuance can liberty halt my fate
How in the chronicles of life was my desire wasted time
How in the love for passion can my lust become a crime

Master Control

Freedom is simply allowing all your desires to cease
Only your will harms yet judgment disturbs your peace
Desire outside your power to reach a state of anxiety
Secure freedom lost to desire by losing impropriety

Desire anything to be disappointed by what you seek
Attachment agonizes as it is taken when you are weak
Decisions of will is the cause of action not the pain
Grieve not to seek but rejoice in the things you gain

Be invincible of event disturbances beyond your will
Opinions of the action dictates the way that you deal
Harm is beyond will where happiness is from you alone
Master will to be free of desire of that not your own

Twenty-fifth Anniversary

25 years we have shared a lasting peace
With years of pleasure on the increase
As a river deepens with its water flow
Did our love channel from head to toe

The river deepens and grows so strong
25 years of our growth is not that long
With your feelings deep from the heart
Giving our children a very strong start

A wonderful woman sharing my life
My house a home because of my wife
25 years building our lasting light
Each year providing greater delight

With our affection in strong release
Comes a joy that brings about peace
And my thoughts reminds me of who
25 years were lucky to share with you

Rives grows deeper like our passion
Together we share a unique fashion
Sharing time on earth with a friend
Stronger together at the rivers end

Death Rider

In came death looking for a rider
I strolled over and sit down beside her
In turn she bit me like a black widow spider
I responded like song to music in tune to bite her

Soul seeks to calm desire

A Princess soul senses that it is going from whence she came
She and her knight return to a path with that goal their aim
The good against the evil drives what she will seek or avoid
She and her knight travel a road that she thoroughly enjoyed

Deep within a Princess' soul is calmness to violence she fears
She and her knight repeat a walk in time that every step nears
That reason distinguishes from undesirable to one she aspires
She and her knight together tame her madness of mixed desires

Princess

Whenever I see my Princess advancing
These eyes cannot help but glancing
She understands each of my notions
As if she carried my magic potions

Words of my Princess, I will obey
This knight lives to hail her day
I would storm the wildest tempest
To share in my Princess’ conquest

My Princess with those beautiful dark eyes
Forever in my memory as a bloom of youth
Who shared some time to combine our lives
And become my unchanging and certain truth

Invitation in Hopes to Toast to Cheers

Will she want to accept or want to cry?
Will she excitedly wait or wonder why?
Will she share a drink or want a round?
Will she start to chat or make a sound?
Will she cry a tear yet not complain?
Will she need tears to reveal her pain?
Will she talk to me like I'm a knight?
Will she share a drink to my delight?
Will she cry a long night of tears?
Will she enjoy so to seek souvenirs?
Will she make her way on in to town?
Will she seek a toast or see a clown?
Will she accept fondly or want to cry?
Will she hope to forget or remember why?
Will she smile or be subject to fears?
Will she really want to toast to cheers?

His Reflection

His barren skills reflect increasing knowledge as a given must
Friendship reflects a lifetime of showing openness builds trust
His perfection reflects that experience of aging time with you
Sincerity reflects openness deep in his heart found in very few

His communications use words reflecting known reservations
Experience from within himself reflect any known limitations
His fear or courage reflects sharing defensiveness or openness
Confusion or clarity reflects his illusion of a wanted closeness

His persuasive demonstration reflects thoughts from his youth
Awareness reflects his acceptance of even sharing every truth
His limitations reflect the shortcomings missing in his insight
Love from his heart reflects brightly through any pitiless light

Share a poem drinking Jeroboam

Let me share a drinking poem
The words you probably know'em
Like wild oats you’ll sow'em
After we’re drinking jeroboam

Let me share with you a poem
In a short time you’ll know'em
Like wild oats I can sow'em
While we're drinking jeroboam

Beautiful Departure

Give’em a kiss at the end of your stay
Leave’em a smiley face on your way
Your touch gives more than words can say
Thoughts of you makes continuous replay

Give’em special time even as you depart
Let’em sense your soul touch their heart
Your heart and soul holds on to their mind
Thoughts of you makes the world seem kind

Special are the Times that End with a Kiss

If you will kiss me to end your stay
My smile will see you on your way
A touch is more than words can say
Thoughts of you in continuous replay

Special is our time before you depart
I sense your soul even touch my heart
To share our time is a world so kind
Your heart and soul holds my mind

Striking young woman

Striking young woman whose beauty endures
Powerless are my eyes being drawn into yours
Desiring your trust drives my mind to think wise
Wishing to become lost in your dark brown eyes

Hearing your voice pleasures like music of a song
Touching you motivates a loving desire so strong
Living comes and goes while we spend time apart
Desiring thoughts from my eyes beat in my heart

Seeing love in those dark brown eyes is my goal
Feeling your charismatic eyes penetrate my soul

LIKE A ROSE

To hold your hand gives excitement like energy bred
Your gorgeous presence makes every rose turn red
As those beautiful lips make a rose blush in shame
Your face glows like sunshine warming me just the same
Daydreams delight me so when your images reappear
Oh beautiful rose your voice is like music to my ear

Nature’s Apology

Asking your forgiveness for considering myself only
Sharing my time with you will never leave me lonely
Consulting using my reason rather than an inclination
Sharing a friendship rather than nature’s frustration

Changing remarkably from nature to a civil adult
Befriending by conduct over an instinctive result
Acting with a morality that my prior deeds lacked
Voicing a duty over letting physical impulses react

Keeping your presence is a gift that is ever so great
Stimulating time with you is a life’s developed fate
Sharing our ideas with feelings conferring dignity
Lifting my heart and soul from my grave indignity

Being with you is where my happy moments began
Sharing time as an intelligent being to be your man

Sunbeam Sunrise

Extreme beauty in the way you look
You’d pleasure man even as you cook
Extreme beauty deep from your eyes
You’d pleasure man merely baking pies

Beaming sounds from your voice
Sharing time, man’s favorite choice
Glowing beauty radiates your skin
You’d pleasure man like a mortal sin

Glittering reflections off your face
Walking leisurely you move with grace
Extreme beauty reflects in your heart
You’d pleasure man like the finest art

Sunbeam shadows your shapely size
Projected beauty beyond earth skies
Extreme beauty deep from those eyes
You’d pleasure man more than a sunrise

Dark Choclate

Dark Chocolate, the song I sing
Dark Chocolate for my Queen
Dark chocolate so semi-sweet,
Dark chocolate for your treat.
Dark chocolate just can't lose,
Dark chocolate, you’d choose.
Dark Chocolate, a taste tonight
Dark Chocolate is your delight

The Killing of bin Laden

For peace soldiers are advancing
The Lord eye was surely glancing
American’s hail to those killed
Found without the virgin shield

Aimed and the steel is thrust
Bin Laden made to bite the dust
Night flying into the battle
Shot an eye in death's rattle

To give this war a fierce rally
The helicopter used as a galley
The grim fierce feud in a hurry
Thrown away at sea in a flurry

Missiles and communications

2008-11-27T21:09:00.000-08:00

In the year of my birth, 1957, the Defense Department formed the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) to coordinate science and technology projects with military applications. In 1962 the RAND Corporation was asked to propose a means whereby command and control could be maintained after a nuclear strike. Communications networks was either centralized through a hub or decentralized with a number of hubs where switchboards served as the hubs, which was highly vulnerable to a nuclear strike.

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles made wars between Great Powers irrational because they were not winnable but twice caused a deep fear, first during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 and then the Yom Kippur War of 1973. From 1976 to 1982, I was involved with Fleet Ballistic Missile submarines as a launcher operator supervisor onboard the USS Robert E Lee, SSBN 601 Polaris and the USS Daniel Webster, SSBN 626 Poseidon. From 1988 until 1998 I was an electrical engineer employed by TRW supporting the MX, Peacekeeper, and Minuteman ICBM weapon systems.

A web of computers called ARPANET was established in 1968 with a total of four computers connected to it by phone lines, three in California and one at the University of Utah. APRA used RAND proposal of a distributed network with no central hubs but nodes that could be wiped out but other nodes still be able to deliver the signal. In 1971 Intel produced the first commercial microprocessor. In 1972 the first e-mail program was designed. In 1973 the TCP/IP protocol was designed. In 1974 the TCP/IP designers called it the Internet. In 1983 while I was an engineering student at the University of Utah, 563 computers were on the net when the University of Wisconsin developed the Domain Name System (DNS) that let any one computer find another.

The geosynchronous satellites of the late 1960s made the world a global village. Overseas phone calls (OPC) numbered about a million in the 1950s and grew to 23 million by 1970. In 1980 there were 200 million OPC with other political and economic consequences, including a unified market trading a trillion dollars daily in major world currencies on average. An international communications cost collapse allowed the world’s financial market to become integrated to function full time as a seamless market. For the first time, he free market could dictate policy of a nation via the international consequences.

By 1990, three hundred thousand computers were connected on the Internet. In 1992, the European nuclear research consortium, CERN, released a web browser, the World Wide Web (www) and the greatest decade of wealth creation in the history of the world began. Primvest provided $5M in venture capital to OnSat where I was employed as the Vice President of Business development, which allowed us to provide Internet connectivity to the Navajo Nations via geosynchronous satellites. I was also acting as a Director with RMWT Telecom. Costs plummeted with the overdevelopment of this time but it allowed growth where 6.3 billion overseas phone calls were being made by 2001. In March of 2000, the bubble begins to burst and by March of 2001 there was a recession in place. On September 11, 2001, there was an attack on the financial capital of the empire of wealth.

Two branches of mathematics

2007-11-03T10:01:00.000-07:00

Two branches of mathematics resulted with separation of whole numbers and geometry. Eudoxus used geometry to define lengths, angles, areas, and volumes with irrational numbers as lengths or line segments. Converting all mathematics except the theory of whole numbers into geometry had consequences. From Euclid until 1600, geometry was the basis of all rigorous mathematics.

Mathematics begins intuitive or empirical and remained so until the 4th century BC. Babylonians used numbers without any understanding of decimal approximations.

BC Pythagoras of the 5th century had linked whole numbers and ratios of whole numbers as the way to study nature and insisted the whole numbers were the measure of all things until Hippasus discovered a irrational number or incommensurable ratio. Pythagoreans and the classical Greeks rejected irrational numbers. Classical Greeks believed in the theory of whole numbers with a logical foundation. Deductive mathematic attempts led Euclid to define all his concepts to provide a logical treatment of the whole numbers.

Geometric representation of numbers and of operations with numbers was not practical. The deductive orderly proof of the geometry of Euclid, Apollonius, and Archimedes was merged with the indeterminate class of problems in the works of Diophantus. Classical Greek civilization combined with Egyptian and Babylonian in the period of Alexandrian Greek civilization. Various types of undefined numbers continued to be used to provide empirically correct solutions.

Heron translated much of the Greek geometrical algebra into arithmetical and algebraic processes and provided a formula for the area of a triangle. Hipparchus and Ptolemy created quantitative astronomy with the creation of trigonometry. Arithmetic and algebra emerged without logical structure since it could be used provide empirical results.

Diophantus introduced symbolism in algebraic operations that was entirely arithmetical with no appeal to geometry. He introduced indeterminate equations as a branch of algebra but considered equations producing irrational negative or imaginary roots as unsolvable. Heron accepted irrational quantities; Archimedes put bounds around irrational numbers.

Hindus and Arab advanced arithmetic and algebra empirically. They reasoned by analogy and introduced rules for manipulating irrational numbers without providing any logical foundation favored in classical Greek mathematics. The Hindus introduced separate symbols for the numbers 1 to 9, converted from positional notation in base 60 to base 10, recognized 0 as a number, and used negative numbers.

Europeans of the Renaissance acquired its knowledge of mathematics via the Arabs and Greek manuscripts. They noticed a dilemma presented by the two disparate states of arithmetic and geometry. They realized the utility of arithmetic and algebra of ancient times lacked a logical foundation. Europeans of the 16th and 17th century considered the negative numbers in Arab texts as absurd. Girard and Harriot used the minus sign to describe negative numbers. A negative number is an independent concept, not the operation of subtraction. Using separate symbols would have been better.

Logarithms, complex numbers, mathematical induction, and the binomial theorem were added to the body of algebra without proofs. Algebra became a study of general types of forms and equations when Vieta introduced literal coefficients separating arithmetic and algebra, types from numbers. By the mid-18th century, algebra included many branches.

Soul forever under contract, 666 credit score rating

2007-10-21T15:36:00.001-07:00

As nineteenth century America traded liberty for ambition, financial circumstances evolved as categories of personal identity. Imperialism trumped freedom; capitalism made every soul a business. Failure, a language of business, was applied to the soul. Failure was made yet never born prior to capitalism. Now, more outrun failure than chase success as a low ambition offends more than a low achievement. With the Civil War failure grew to mean insolvent. Failure became a sin promoted by the idea that men who failed lacked ability and ambition. Men were always at fault for their failures even though honest dealings and hard work could fail under capitalism.

Failure went from an incident to an identity. A man became nothing more than his occupation. Striving for success became a compulsory virtue and even a sacred duty within religious cultures. Perpetual ambition became self respect and self esteem, where every life was to be lived on the stretch and an easy life could never be good enough.

Men publish the successes of their efforts but shy from sharing failures, a practice of concealment that causes the ruins of many a man as every success is followed by eight failures with a paper trail of common failure hidden within libraries and public archives.

The basis of modern American law, economy, and society is contract theory. Contract became the framework of achieved identity in its supreme place in legal thought. Free man could make deals to advance him and nobody fails who ought not to fail. A contract was a promise to succeed, to uphold your end of a bargain. Any soul freely accepted or rejected contracts, which completely ignores the basic facts of poverty and power.

Legal release from debt violates two rules of capitalism, keeping a promise and taking responsibility when a soul’s actions harm others. An entrepreneur who failed in the early nineteenth century faced inadequate laws, vengeful creditors, and forced idleness in debtor’s prison. Bankruptcy laws voided a debtor’s legal obligations, not a soul’s moral ones. During rampant failure, a contract came to signify obligation but not a promise. A moral obligation was at odds with legal and economic change, yet worth preserving. To enshrine moral obligations was to sequester it unenforceable or ordered from the court.

Bankroll vs Edge and Odds

2007-10-08T14:09:00.000-07:00

For a positive expectation bet, you need an edge.
Edge is the amount you expect to win.

For a positive expectation bet, you need the odds.
Odds of 2 to 1 converts to 1/(2+1) fraction

Wagers of positive expectation have size limitations.
Bankroll must be a consideration for making a wager.

Kelly Formula relates 'bet to bankroll' as 'edge/odds'.
Edge/odds formula ignores the effect this wager has.

Arithmetic Mean vs. Geometric Mean

2007-10-07T10:27:00.000-07:00

Arithmetic Mean = the sum of 'X' values divided by 'X' = Average.
Geometric Mean = the 'X' root of the product of 'X' values.

Geometric Mean < Arithmetic Mean, except when equal average values.
if Geometric Mean < Arithmetic Mean, then any risk is unfavorable

if an investor trades then zero sum game loses payments in trade
if a gambler makes a fair wager then risk makes wager unfavorable

if you wager or invest then you chose the highest Geometric Mean
if a Gemetric Mean = 0 then you can go to zero and will in time

Arithmetic Emprical not Truth

2007-09-16T13:04:00.000-07:00

The problem in arithmetic is people use applications to physical phenomena without the necessary experience to understand if it even applies. Examples of arithmetic applications can be absurd. I like Grey Goose Vodka and if a quart of alcohol is mixed with a quart of water it will yield ~1.8 quarts of vodka, which is true of most mixtures of alcoholic liquids. I play basketball and if one night I hit 2 out of 3 shots and the next night I make 3 out of 4 shots and you compute my average over both games by adding the two fractions in the usual method of adding fractions, which is find the common denominator:
2/3 +3/4 = 8/12+9/12=17/12
So, I made 17 shots in 12 tries? The method of adding fractions does not give my shooting average over separate games.

A new way of adding fractions is add the numerators and add the denominators:
2/3 +3/4=5/7
Experience tells us this arithmetic method is correct.

Under normal rules 2/3=4/6 but not under this new method of adding fractions:
4/6+3/4=7/10, and 7/10 does NOT equal 5/7.

In normal arithmetic, fractions behave as integers. So consider the numerators 2 and 4. The numbers can be fractions: 2/1 and 4/1.

Now use our new arithmetic:
2/1+4/1=6/2 rather than the 6/1 obtained under normal rules.

This has a major significance since it concludes that there is no truth in mathematics but simply a tool developed by man. Only experience can show where ordinary arithmetic applies to any given physical phenomena. The theorems of mathematics are not truths but man's tool to model aspects about the physical world. As far as the study of the physical world is concerned, mathematics merely offers theories. Mathematics is based on man's intuition whereas axioms of logic or truth is an art where man is allowed to paint his better wrong answer with confidence.

Fractions and Odds

2007-09-16T10:22:00.000-07:00

To convert odds to fractions: a to b is b/ (a+b)
To convert fractions to odds: a/b is (b-a) to a

Odds are a ratio of non occurrences to occurrences (losses to wins).
Ratios reduce to lower terms [i.e. (9 to 6) = (3 to 2)].

Think of things in terms of fractions or percentages not odds.
3 to 1 shot: 1/ (1+3) = 1/4: 0.25 = 25%
hence 3 to 2 shot = 40%
4 to 1 shot: 1/ (1+4) = 1/5: 0.20 = 20%

Odds need to be converted to fractions to do any arithmetic. Change odds to percentages, add the percentages, and revert that to odds. (i.e. to parlay 3 to shot and 4 to 1 shot):
3 to 2: 2/5
4 to 1: 1/5
1/5 x 2/5 = 2/25, which reverts to 23 to 2 shot.

Percentage advantage is not the same as percentage disadvantage. If you know either then you can tell if your expectation is positive or negative. Your average profit per game is your expectations. With 9 to 1 odds, the house has a 1% advantage, for example each $110 bet makes them $1, yet the player disadvantage is to lose $1 for each $11 bet, which is 9.1% when he bets $1 per roll for eleven rolls where he wins once ($9) and they win $10.

Mutually Exclusive vs Independent Events

2007-09-08T09:58:00.000-07:00

Mutually exclusive or independent events must be considered before calculating the probability of two or more events occurring.

Two events "I am here" or "I am not here" are mutually exclusive. If ‘event A’ occurs, then ‘event B’ cannot, or vice-versa. To calculate the probabilities for exclusive events ADD the probabilities.

Two events "I am here" and "You are here" are independent. If ‘event A’, then if ‘event B’. To calculate the probabilities for independent events MULTIPLY the probabilities of two unrelated events.

The throw of a single die, outcomes are equally probable. Each throw is a mutually exclusive event. That is, if a die rolls A then it cannot roll B. The probability of rolling A or B with the first die is the sum of the equal probabilities, 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/3.
Independent events are multiplied. The probability of throwing two dice resulting in A and A is the probability of each roll times itself: (1/6) * (1/6) = 1/36th or 2.77%.

The probability of rolling A and B in either order with one dice is 1/3 x 1/6 = 1/18 (2/36). Add or multiply probabilities based on whether mutually exclusive or independent.

The different numbers obtained by the throw of two dice offer a good introduction to the ideas of probability. Possible outcomes for the total of two dice are not equal. Seven is a possible outcome with every throw of two dice. Two and 12 rolls only 1/36 (A and A) or (B and B). The "odds" of three (A or B) are two times greater 2/36. Rolling a 7 is six times greater 6/36, which raises the idea of distinguishable states. With two dice, the first dice throw does not matter as there remains a chance of rolling 7. If you throw one dice and it rolls a 3 then the next dice roll must be a 4 or vise-versa. Outcomes are exclusive if a result directly affects the other. The order does not matter (i.e. rolling a 3 is twice as likely as rolling a 2 since there are two distinguishable ways to get a 3). The probability of rolling a 7 with two dice is 1/6, rolled 6 of a total of 36 possible outcomes.

Standard Deviation Winner

2007-08-07T16:41:00.000-07:00

The standard deviation is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size. Success may be the result of a positive expectation but can be the result of a standard deviation, where many live in the variance.

if each possible outcome is not equally likely then each must be weighted according to its probability or element of change
if mean vs volatility then mean-variance analysis offers criteria for earning best combination of compound return on investment

The mean-variance analysis is static for given what you know now.
The mean-variance analysis is a theory over time at present frame.

Variance increases along with the arithmetic mean.
Variance goes to zero along with a geometric mean.

if zero is a chance of any outcome then the geometric mean is zero
if a geometric mean is zero then variance does not matter as there is a zero outcome with time

Limit Poker Parameters

2007-06-25T18:21:00.000-07:00

♠♣ the parameters of limit poker ♥
β=bank roll
R=win rate
σ = standard deviation = √variance
T = time (hours)
τ = sample size
99.5% of the population is within 3 standard deviations = 3 σ
σ = √τ

β = R T - 3 σ √T
So, 0 = R T - 3 σ √T hours necessary to ensure a profit
(if you know your win rate)
dβ = R d(T - 3 σ √T )
0 = R dT – 3σ dT¹∕²
0 = R (1) – 3σ ½ (1/√T)
T = |3σ/2R|²

Effects of debt related fiat currency

2007-06-23T10:23:00.000-07:00

The US gross domestic product (GDP) is approximately $12,000,000,000,000 ($12 trillion). The federal government should borrow money on the global market based on its creditors believing they will be repaid in full with interest. However, it also prints new currency (M3) that dilutes the value of the currency.

Britain recovered from the highest recorded national debt of 250% of its GDP after World War II. Britain repaid its debts to about 50% of G.D.P.

Debt burdens of 150% of GDP have proven unsustainable. Smaller countries are not credit worthy anywhere near this level. Argentina lost its ability to borrow after its debt hit 65% of GDP. A borrowing limit for the United States using 150% of its $12 trillion GDP would be about $18 trillion.

The official Treasury debt equals $4.6 trillion but the government has also spent money borrowed from the trust funds. The government owes $3.2 trillion, of which, $2 trillion is to Social Security and Medicare trust funds. Count this and the US has a debt of $6.6 trillion. However, the Social Security trust fund requires an additional $4 trillion to cover its obligations. Add this $4 trillion and the current debt is $10.6 trillion. Medicare trustees states the fund faces a shortfall of $9 trillion in obligations. Now, the prescription drug benefit reflects another $21 trillion deficit that to cover its supplementary obligations. This debt must be borrowed as there is no trust fund from which it can be taken.

This aggregate debt is $40.6 trillion, which is well beyond the unsustainable 150% of GDP limit of $18 trillion.

Total U.S. obligations of $40.6 trillion are nearly 338% of the GDP.

Now the USA must remain an empire. An empire’s economic foundations, from Greek and Roman, to Ottoman and British, are based on its ability to tax other nations. An imperial ability to tax demands a better, stronger economy and military. Subject taxes go to improve the living standards of the empire and to strengthen the military dominance that is necessary to enforce the collection of such taxes. Nation-states tax its citizens but an empire can tax other nation-states.

America can tax the entire world indirectly via inflation. It does not need to enforce direct payment of taxes as the predecessor empires as it distribute a fiat currency to other nations in exchange for goods with the intended consequence of inflating and devaluing those dollars via M3 growth and paying back each dollar with less economic goods. This difference is an imperial tax.

The U.S. economy would not dominate the world economy if the U.S. dollar was tied to gold. The M3 currency could not increase if it was limited to a gold reserve. The Great Depression, with its preceding inflation from 1921 to 1929 and its subsequent ballooning government deficits, substantially increased the currency in circulation, and rendered the backing of U.S. dollars by gold impossible. President Roosevelt removed the dollar from gold in 1932. The U.S. dominated the world economy from an economic point of view but was not an empire as the fixed value of the dollar did not allow the extraction of economic benefits from countries since these dollars remained convertible to gold.

With William Jennings Bryan’s famous "Cross of Gold" speech, Keynesian monetary policies, and the historical record during the Gilded Age of depressions and bank panics represented by an onerous gold standard that most economists reject, no one is suggesting a return. Under the gold standard, the money supply was so limited with unprecedented economic, industrial, and population expansion that deflation resulted and ended the era with the Panic of 1873. However, deflation is not the problem with fiat currency.

The United States accumulated the world’s gold by supplying allies with provisions during WWII and receiving payment in gold, which allowed the dollar to become the world currency. However, the dollar supply is no longer limited to the availability of gold since the Bretton Woods arrangement. An Empire began when foreign governments could not exchange dollars for gold. The supply of dollars was increased to finance Vietnam and LBJ’s Great Society, where most of those dollars were given to foreigners in exchange for economic goods.

America was without prospect of buying these dollars back. The increase in dollar holdings of foreigners via persistent U.S. trade deficits was a classical inflation tax. A country normally imposes this tax on its own citizens but this time around an inflation tax was imposed on the entire world. In 1970-1971 foreign governments were demanding repayment for their dollars in gold, which caused the U.S. Government to default on August 15, 1971 by severing the link between the dollar and gold. This was an act of bankruptcy by the U.S. Government as it had extracted an enormous amount of economic goods from the rest of the world, with no intention or ability to return those goods, but the world was powerless to respond. The world had been taxed and it could not do anything about it. Therefore, the U.S. became an Empire.

Since, America sustains it Empire by continuing to tax the rest of the world. The United States must force the world to continue to accept ever-depreciating dollars in exchange for economic goods and to have the world hold more and more of those depreciating dollars. The economic reason to for the world to hold dollars since it could not buy back its dollars with gold was controlling the purchase of oil. Since 1972-73, the empire ensures the world only accepts U.S. dollars for oil. Because the world had to buy oil, it needs U.S. dollars. Since the world uses ever increasing quantities of oil at ever increasing oil prices, the worlds demand for dollars increases. Dollars are not exchangeable for gold but remain the only way to buy oil.

The economic essence is that the dollar is backed by oil. As long as that remains the case, the world has to accumulate increasing amounts of dollars because they needed dollars to buy oil. As long as the dollar is the only acceptable payment for oil, its dominance in the world is assured. The American Empire can continue to tax the rest of the world. If the dollar loses its oil backing our Empire may cease to exist. Imperial survival dictates oil is sold only for dollars. Oil reserves remain in sovereign states that are not strong enough, politically or militarily, to demand payment for oil in something else. Political or military means will be used to change any minds if a different payment is demanded.

A man who last demanded Euro for his oil was Saddam Hussein in 2000. At first, his demand was met with ridicule, later with neglect, but as it became clearer that he meant business, political pressure was exerted to change his mind. This caused the recession of March 2001. Countries, like Iran, wanted payment in other currencies, most notably Euro and Yen, the danger to the dollar was clear and present, and a punitive action was in order. We defended the dollar that supports the American Empire. We set an example, anyone who demanded payment in currencies other than U.S. Dollars will be punished. We went into Iraq to defend our Empire. Two months after the United States invaded Iraq, the Oil for Food Program was terminated, the Iraqi Euro accounts were switched back to dollars, and oil was sold only in U.S. dollars. No longer could the world buy oil from Iraq with Euro.

The current home values relative to inflation adjusted currency are the highest in history. Other housing booms have been an offshoot of excess profits during the roaring 20's, specifically Florida's growth and development, at the end of the World War II when property loans expanded to home loans, and then expanded to giving loans on mass produced items such as washers and dryers. The later increasing prices in the 70’s and 80’s were related to economic booms. However, the latest housing market value has no such foundation.

Increasing dollar circulation causes currency inflation reflective of the outstanding debt, as that is how the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank operates. The government quit providing the M3 numbers on the date that IRAN had planned to start using another currency to sell its oil and has not released it since.

Global inflation has been controlled by the government by allowing US consumers to borrow it so its circulation is taxable. First bankruptcy was overhauled then the rates were cut to entice internal borrowing. Cars had 0% interest t rates. Home lending was whatever amount you wanted (i.e. ads for 125% of value). Tons of currency entered the US market. Cars quit selling, and then houses quit increasing in price, now hedge funds, which are unregulated, are acquiring companies using debt. Solid companies have to borrow massive amounts internally or become takeover targets.

USA has spent $50,000,000,000.00 on rebuilding Iraq, not including costs of the war or troop support. Who is left to borrow next? Wars have always been won by the country that can best liquate its assets.

The Iranian government, which has over $53B dollars, is trying to use the Iranian Oil Bourse. This leads to the destruction of the financial system underpinning of our Empire as the Bourse is based on a euro-oil-trading mechanism that implies payment for oil in Euro. This circumvents the U.S. dollar by allowing oil to be bought or sold for the Euro. Europeans will not buy and hold dollars needed for oil if they pay with their own currencies. Adoption of the Euro for oil transactions provides the European currency with a reserve status that benefits Europeans at the expense of Americans. Chinese and Japanese will deplete dollar reserves and diversify with Euros that protect against the threat of depreciation of the dollar and spend remaining dollars without replenishing its holdings. Russia's economic interest is to adopt the Euro since the bulk of their trade is with European countries, oil-exporting countries, China, and Japan. Russians are buying gold with depreciating dollars. Arab oil-exporting countries will diversify its rising mountains of depreciating dollars with European countries who prefer the Euro for its stability and to avoid currency depreciation.

Britain has a strategic partnership with the U.S. The two leading oil exchanges are New York’s NYMEX and London’s (IPE) International Petroleum Exchange both of which has London IPE interests and it’s British Pound. The British did not adopt the Euro namely because the London IPE would have had to switch to Euros which would destroy the currency of a strategic partner. The Iranian Oil Bourse has the interests of the Europeans, Chinese, Japanese, Russians, and Arab who will adopt the Euro and seal the fate of the dollar. Americans cannot allow this to happen. The Iranian Oil Bourse would collapse the dollar, accelerate inflation, and increase U.S. long-term interest rates driving deflation or hyperinflation. If the Fed raises interest rates it will start a major economic depression, a collapse in real estate, and an implosion in bond, stock, and derivative markets, with a total financial collapse. Or, inflation where long-bond yield sinks the financial system in liquidity and hyperinflation destroys the economy.

The sinews of war are infinite money. – Cicero

First paper money issued in the Western world circulated in 1690 Massachusetts to pay for troops to fight against the French in King William's War (Nine Years' War, Europe). In 1729 Ben Franklin published, "A Modest Enquiry into the Nature and Necessity of Paper Currency". Ever hear the old quote, "Not worth a Colonial?"

Risk and Uncertainty

2007-06-22T15:02:00.000-07:00

Uncertainty is measurable as a probability when all outcomes of certainty are defined. A probability of certainty is uncertainty, the entropy. Uncertainty is the randomness among certain outcomes.

Uncertainty is distinct from risk. If risk is a quantity susceptible of measurement, then risk is a measurable uncertainty. Risk that is un-measurable is not in effect an uncertainty at all but a result of any number of random unknowns.

Risk is defined as uncertainty only when it can be based on (quantitative) probability. It must by definable with an uncertainty, or variability of returns measured by a standard deviation of returns around a mean.

Risk can not assign such a probability if it can not be reduced significantly by attempts to gain all information about the phenomena in question and their causes or a defined uncertainty.

Risks of stock investments guess at immeasurable possibilities.
Risks of games of chance are uncertain at measurable probabilities.

Probabilities of measurable risks exactly predict every uncertainty in a game chance.
Randomness of real-world risks use mathematical models that attempt to predict immeasurable estimates of unknown situations as if it were a probability in a game of chance. The result is occasionally a good example of Feynman’s Cargo Cult Science.

Investing vs Speculation vs Gambling

2007-06-21T23:33:00.000-07:00

Investing is an attempt to forecast the yield of assets in the market
Speculating is an attempt to forecast the psychology of the market

Investor is a name given to passive investors
Speculation is the name of an active investor

Investment is a name given to a successful speculation
Speculation is the name given to a failed investment

Investment infers an attempt toward a preservation of capital
Speculation infers an attempt toward enhancement of fortune

Investment attempts to prevent a lot of money from becoming a little
Speculation is an effort to turn a little money into a large fortune

Investment gone badly is called a speculation
Speculation gone badly is called a gamble

Investment involves less risk but is a form of a speculation
Speculation involves more risk but is a form of investment

Gambling involves the deliberate creation of new risks
Speculation involves the assumption of the inevitable risks

Uncertainty can describe risk that can be exactly measured
Risk is an uncertainty only when it can be exactly measured

Investment or speculation involves immeasurable risk
Gambling involves risk with a measurable uncertainty

Psychologies of speculation and gambling are indistinguishable
Psychology with an appeal to fortune is considered a dangerously addictive habit

Financial risk can be uncertainty only with inside information
Gmax = R suggests inside information equals the rate of return

Law of large numbers is misunderstood by gamblers and investors
Investment < speculation < reckless gambling

Investment with borrowed money is always speculative
Speculation is considered riskier than investment

Gamblers create a risk
Speculators assume a risk

Average Return of investors = Average Return of stock market
Subtract one from the other and you get Ave Ret of active investors

Active Investor Average gains = Active Investor Average losses
Average Return of Passive investors = Average Return of Active

Investing is a zero sum - (mgt expenses + brokerage fees + taxes)
Prediction of risk = immeasurable certainty = any and all gain

Gamblers uncertainty can be measured risk with a positive expectation
Investor’s risk has an empirical evidence of positive expectation

A bet on stocks shows empirical evidence of a higher average return
A bet in an attempt to take advantage of those with less information

Favorable bets will be called investing
Unfavorable bets constitutes gambling

Investing, speculating, and gambling each represent bets that attempt to gain advantage of or take from one another. A positive expectation outcome is proportional to a difference in information. However, money is easily lost with a mathematical advantage due to the randomness of these outcomes. Investing is a positive expectation attempt to gain an empirically evident higher ‘than guaranteed savings’ average return. Speculating is an attempt to defy odds in order to gain an amount greater than the average return of the market. Gambling is an attempt to defy odds of outcomes with negative expectations. Speculating and gambling can have a positive expectation that is proportional to insider or privately held information.

People can't multitask

2007-06-21T14:48:00.000-07:00

People can't multitask. Some mind's thought processes differ when people are thinking about the same thing. If he uses his brain to count to himself, he can not talk. However someone may visualize a tape with numbers on it going by and talk. He either can’t count to himself and talk or he can’t watch a metal tape and read. In summary, you can externally and objectively test how a persons brain works by observing what a person can and can’t do while he counts.

Basketball and Gambling

2007-06-21T13:46:00.000-07:00

A basketball player's chance of making his shot is based on his athletic skill. His percentages increase with his advantage but has nothing to do with the results of his or her previous shots. Randomness-challenged minds give real-world errors of judgment that lead to the widespread belief that a basketball player has a hot hand when he makes a random number of consecutive shots yet the frequency or duration of the streaks never exceed chance fluctuations. Of course, give a large enough sample size it is likely that some unspecified player somewhere does have an inordinately lengthy lucky streak via a chance manifestation of regression to the mean. In any case, an inference engine such as one's mind does not necessarily result in the most acurate results.

Man has a number of misleading beliefs about random events that are applicable to his assumptions of randomness. Randomness is neither clearly defined nor understood. Even random number generators merely use some belief system to create an array of events random.

People take incredible amounts of risk in the stock market full of uncertainties and cheating opportunities but call it investing but consider gambling risk. Mathematically speaking, gambling should be easier to tolerate as risk numbers are known within a high degree of confidence and losses correspond to a well-defined chance where skill actually matters.

An allusion is to treat small samples of information drawn at random from a large population similar to one another and representative of the entire population. Statistically significant relationships between two variables that emerge from 20 individuals may not reappear from an additional 10 individuals, as the odds of this happening are less than 50-50. A mind thinks on a small random sequence where extended runs of one value or another inevitably cancels each other out. The gambler's fallacy reveals one will assume that a run of heads in a sequence of random coin flips will give way to a corrective series of tails to result in roughly equal numbers of heads and tails overall. Random sequences of two values alternate frequently from one value to another may contain extended runs of a single value. A sequence of "HHTTHTHTTH" as no better example of randomness than "THHHHHHHT," as the chances of observing either sequence is the same as any other of equal length.